Friday, October 12, 2012

Who will win the 2012 election for President of the United States? Let's do the math.

Presidential Debate 2012 (Complete) Romney vs.Obama - 10/3/2012 - Elections 2012

Complete Vice Presidential Debate 2012: Joe Biden vs. Paul Ryan - Oct 11, 2012 - Elections 2012

Complete Second Presidential Town Hall Debate 2012: Barack Obama vs. Mitt Romney - Oct 16, 2012

There will be one more debate between President Obama and Mitt Romney on Monday October 22, 2012. You will be able to find the video for the last 2012 debate in this post.

Today, Friday October 12, 2012, I looked up who is winning which toss-up states and here it is.

270 electoral votes are required to win the election for American president on Tuesday November 6, 2012. At this time President Obama can be certain to win 201 electoral votes and Mitt Romney can be certain to win 181 electoral votes. Each state represents a number of electoral votes that depends on their population. All the electoral votes of each state goes to the candidate who wins that state.

There are 12 toss-up states also known as swing states. Neither candidate can be certain to win these states but polls show who is ahead right now.

The most recent polls show Obama is ahead of Romney in these swing states:

Iowa (6 electoral votes)
Michigan (16)
Nevada (6)
Pennsylvania (20)
Wisconsin (10)

This gives Obama 201+6+16+20+10 = 259 electoral votes, 11 votes less than the 270 electoral votes required to win.

The most recent polls show Romney is ahead in these swing states:

Colorado (9 electoral votes)
Florida (29)
Missouri (10)
New Hampshire (4)
North Carolina (15)

This gives Romney 181+9+29+10+4+15 = 248 electoral votes, 22 votes less than the 270 electoral votes required to win.

There are two more swing states where Obama and Romney are virtually dead even in the most recent polls.

Virginia (13 electoral votes)
Ohio (18 electoral votes)

Obama with 259 electoral votes needs to win only one of these states (Virginia or Ohio) to get the 270 electoral votes required to win the election.

Romney with 248 electoral votes must win both Virginia and Ohio to win the election.

Obviously it looks like Obama has a slightly better chance to win. However, Obama has good reasons to fear the next two debates because Romney killed Obama in the first debate.

The owner of this blog (that would be me) is an economic conservative. I have a strong preference for Mitt Romney to win. I have extreme contempt for liberal loon Obama.

Before the first debate Obama was expecting a landslide victory. The 90 minute debate changed everything because Romney showed he has excellent ideas to fix our country, while Obama has nothing new to offer. Romney has the momentum. I'm betting on Romney to win.


Ohio: Romney vs. Obama

Key 2012 Races: SenateOH6OH7OH16 | President: 2008: Obama +4.62004: Bush +2.1

Polling Data

PollDateSampleMoEObama (D)Romney (R)Spread
RCP Average10/4 - 10/13----48.046.3Obama +1.7
PPP (D)10/12 - 10/13880 LV3.35146Obama +5
Rasmussen Reports10/10 - 10/10750 LV4.04847Obama +1
NBC/WSJ/Marist10/7 - 10/9994 LV3.15145Obama +6
Gravis Marketing10/6 - 10/101313 LV2.74546Romney +1
SurveyUSA10/5 - 10/8808 LV3.54544Obama +1
CNN/Opinion Research10/5 - 10/8722 LV3.55147Obama +4
ARG10/5 - 10/8600 LV4.04748Romney +1
WeAskAmerica10/4 - 10/41200 LV3.04647Romney +1

Ohio doesn't look so good for Romney but he must win Ohio. Romney must win the next two debates and he must spend most of his time in Ohio. It looks bad. I'm still betting on Romney but it's going to be very close.

The polls for the entire nation put Romney in first place, but that won't mean anything if Romney loses in Ohio.

General Election: Romney vs. Obama

Polling Data

PollDateSampleMoERomney (R)Obama (D)Spread
RCP Average10/4 - 10/12----47.346.0Romney +1.3
Rasmussen Tracking10/10 - 10/121500 LV3.04948Romney +1
IBD/TIPP Tracking10/7 - 10/12804 LV3.54646Tie
Gallup Tracking10/6 - 10/122700 LV2.04947Romney +2
Monmouth/SurveyUSA/Braun10/8 - 10/101360 LV2.74746Romney +1
FOX News10/7 - 10/91109 LV3.04645Romney +1
Pew Research10/4 - 10/71112 LV3.44945Romney +4
WashTimes/JZ Analytics*10/5 - 10/7800 LV3.54545Tie

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