Thursday, September 27, 2012

Mr. Obama will win the November 6, 2012 election for President of the United States and it will be a landslide.

I am now more than 100% for sure certain President Obama will defeat Mitt Romney in the November 6, 2012 American election. I did the math and I will explain it here.

Each candidate will win in states where they are so far ahead it's absolutely certain they can't be defeated. Each state, depending on population, has a fixed number of electoral votes. Those electoral votes are what the candidates need to win or lose the election. The for-sure states for Obama total 265 electoral votes, but Romney can only be sure to win 191 of these votes. 270 electoral votes are required to win, so Obama only needs 5 more votes while Romney needs 79 more votes.

The other states are called toss-up states or swing states because the polls show it will be a close race. Two important states used to be toss-up states but now those states (Wisconsin and Ohio) belong to President Obama. He can't possibly lose in those states. There are 7 swing states left.

The seven swing states and their number of electoral votes:
Colorado (9)
Florida (29)
Iowa (6)
Nevada (6)
New Hampshire (4)
North Carolina (15)
Virginia (13)

If Obama wins only in New Hampshire he will have only 269 electoral votes, one short of the 270 votes he needs. But if he wins just one of the other six states he is over the 270 required votes and he wins the election.

Unfortunately for Romney and America's economic conservatives (including myself) Romney has to win all seven swing states, including New Hampshire, to reach the 270 electoral votes he needs to win the election.

Even more unfortunately for Romney the polls show Obama is likely to win all seven swing states which will give him 347 electoral votes, way more than the 270 votes he needs. I predict Obama will win all seven of the swing states which would give him a landslide victory.

But even if for some strange reason Obama wins only one of those states, and that state is not New Hampshire, Obama will win the election. What Romney has to do is impossible. He has to win seven states where the polls show he will lose.

But what if Obama wins New Hampshire, and Romney, despite the impossible odds, wins the other six swing states. Then each candidate would win exactly 269 electoral votes, so both Obama and Romney would not have the required 270 votes to win the election. Then the United States House of Representatives would vote for our next president and their decision would be final. Since Republicans are the majority in the House (the Democrats are the majority Party in the Senate but the Senate can't make this decision according to our constitution), it's fair to say Romney would win. So all Romney has to do is win six swing states even though the polls show Obama will win all seven swing states. It can't be done. It's impossible. I have a better chance of winning the lottery and I never buy lottery tickets.

I disagree with Obama about lots of things but I have to admit he is extremely popular in America. And his opponent is a fucking idiot who can't go one day without making a fool out of himself. I'm voting for that idiot but I'm certain I will be voting for a loser, a pathetic retard who has done an excellent job of making Americans hate him. Even I don't like him very much.

Maybe some day the Republican Party will nominate somebody for president who isn't a drooling moron, but I doubt it.

No comments:

Post a Comment