What I wrote at the Washington Post.

It will be impossible for Biden to win after these fantastic job numbers. Mike Bloomberg could have defeated Trump, but Biden doesn't have a chance.

It should be interesting to watch you children cry like babies for the next 4 years.

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Dow soars more than 800 points as Wall Street closes in on pre-pandemic levels

U.S. stocks are in the midst of a stunning, three-month rally that puts a V-shaped recovery back in play.

By Taylor Telford and Thomas Heath

June 5, 2020

Wall Street is in the midst of a stunning, three-month rally that is close to putting investors back where they were in January, before the coronavirus pandemic obliterated trillions in wealth.

A surprisingly positive jobs report on Friday helped markets extend an already strong week, pushing the Standard & Poor’s 500 index — which has soared 9 percent in three weeks — within 1 percent of going positive for 2020, according to Howard Silverblatt of S&P Dow Jones Indices. The S&P was more than 30 percent in the hole less than three months ago. It closed up 81 points, or 2.6 percent.

The Nasdaq — already 9 percent ahead on the year — added 198 points, or 2 percent. The Nasdaq 100, a collection of the largest non-financial Nasdaq companies, is at an all-time high. led in part by recoveries in airline and hotel stocks.

The Dow Jones industrial average rocketed more than 1,000 points after the release of May unemployment numbers, then cut its gains to 829 points, or 3 percent, to close above 27,000 for the first time in three months. The advance put the blue-chip index within a few percentage points of turning positive for the year. The Labor Department said the nation’s jobless rate fell to 13.3 percent — a far cry from the 19.5 percent analysts had forecast and a significant improvement from the 14.7 percent set in April — as states incrementally reopened their economies after months of pandemic-fueled shutdowns and some Americans were able to get back to work.

“We have been given today the surprise of our investor lives,” said Bryce Doty, senior portfolio manager at Sit Investment Associates, a Minneapolis money management firm. “The timing of the economic recovery just moved up. Markets had been telling us economic activity was picking up, and today bears that out.”

The economy added more than 2.5 million jobs in May, data show. Much of those gains were in sectors the pandemic hurt the most, including airlines, cruise lines, retail, hotels and energy. The rebound may be a sign the market may have appropriately anticipated a quick revival — in part because of massive interventions by the federal government and the Federal Reserve.

“Some of the economic data already looks V-shaped,” said Liz Ann Sonders, chief investment strategist at Charles Schwab & Co. “We saw complete reversals in the industries that lost the most in the shutdown. The persistence of the strength of this recovery is the question."

Despite ongoing protests since George Floyd was killed last week while in police custody and the country grappling with its worst economic crisis since the Great Depression, investor optimism has been steadily gaining. On Thursday, weekly unemployment claims came in below estimates — although at 1.9 million the losses still show staggering damage to the economy.

Asian markets closed up and European markets were trending higher. The rally followed the European Central Bank’s announcement on Thursday that it would add $676 billion (600 billion euros) to its coronavirus rescue plan, making the total package worth more than $1.5 trillion.

“The policy stimulus globally has been nothing short of breathtaking,” said David Rosenberg of Rosenberg Research.

Germany, one of Europe’s most powerful economic engines, also announced a fresh stimulus package Thursday amid rising unemployment.

“There are a number of reasons to be cautious in this market but none are clearly as compelling as the grand economic reopening and authorities everywhere pumping out cash like it’s going out of fashion,” Craig Erlam, an analyst with OANDA, wrote in commentary Friday. “This is purely a stimulus and momentum trade and it’s not running shy of either.”

Positive news is filtering through the economy. Oil prices are climbing, helping that industry get back on its feet. The number of people paying off their mortgages has ticked up, marking the first net decline in active forbearance plans since the Cares Act was enacted. Personal incomes have risen 10.5 percent, thanks largely to federal stimulus checks. First-time unemployment filings have leveled off. The housing market is on the rise, helped by record-low interest rates. Private payrolls shed 2.76 million jobs in May, ADP reported Wednesday, well below the 8.75 million that economists surveyed by Dow Jones had expected.

Analysts caution that the economy has a long way to go. The magnitude of economic damage suggests a V-shaped recovery is still a reach. A Monday report from the Congressional Budget Office estimated that fallout from the coronavirus crisis will shrink the size of the U.S. economy by roughly $8 trillion over the next decade. That amounts to a 3 percent decline in U.S. gross domestic product compared to its initial estimate.

Oil prices soared to their highest levels in three months as investors looked toward the meeting of OPEC and its allies this weekend, where the organization is expected to agree to further production cuts while the world gets back in motion. Brent crude, the international oil benchmark, rose nearly 3.9 percent to trade at $41.54 per barrel. West Texas Intermediate crude, the U.S. oil benchmark, climbed more than 3 percent to trade at $38.55 per barrel.

If the recent market gains are sustained, they could have a big impact on the American consumer come July, when people open their quarterly retirement statements.

“There is a going be a huge change in the number between the end of the first and second quarters,” said Ivan Feinseth of Tigress Financial Partners. “When people look at their 401(k) and retirement statements, they are going to happy. That will help drive the second half of the year.”