What I wrote at the Wall Street Journal: If Mike Bloomberg wins the nomination, he might defeat Trump. If anyone else wins the Democratic nomination, Trump wins.
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This is from the front page of the February 13 Wall Street Journal:
POLITICS
ELECTION 2020
Moderate Democrats Stress Over Crowded Center Lane
There is no single centrist rival to front-runner Bernie Sanders, and party leaders are bracing for a protracted nomination fight.
By Ken Thomas and Natalie Andrews
February 12, 2020
NASHUA, New Hampshire—Democrats in search of a centrist nominee to challenge President Trump are increasingly worried after contests in Iowa and New Hampshire consolidated liberal support behind Bernie Sanders and divided the larger moderate vote among multiple candidates.
The party’s center lane is crowded with the rising former South Bend, Ind., Mayor Pete Buttigieg, Sen. Amy Klobuchar and former Vice President Joe Biden. Looming in the March 3 Super Tuesday states and beyond is former New York Mayor Mike Bloomberg, buoyed by campaign spending that dwarfs all his opponents combined.
With no clear centrist front-runner, vulnerable freshman Democrats in Congress are texting each other anxiously, a Biden-allied fundraiser warns of a “doomsday scenario” and party strategists fret about what mixed early-state turnout means for November.
Predictions about which candidates are the most electable and which will prevail through a long primary season have proven unreliable in the past, particularly at this early stage of the process, before voting in the diverse states of South Carolina and Nevada. Barack Obama faced intraparty doubts in 2008, as did Mr. Trump in 2016.
With multiple contenders vowing to stay in the race, party leaders are yet again bracing for the likelihood of a protracted fight for the nomination that may not be settled by the time of the July convention in Milwaukee.
Adding to some Democrats’ worries is the president’s acquittal from impeachment and his strength among his most fervent supporters, as evidenced by the more than 11,000 who turned out for his Monday night rally in Manchester, N.H., a larger crowd than any assembled by a Democrat campaigning in the state.
“There is one thing that’s universal, and that is anxiety,” said Rufus Gifford, who served as finance director for President Obama’s re-election campaign and has contributed to several campaigns.
The fear among some Democrats is predicated on the idea that Mr. Sanders, the Vermont senator and self-described democratic socialist, would struggle to defeat Mr. Trump in November. Mr. Sanders and his supporters believe the party could unite around him if he is the nominee and that he could energize young voters and those in crucial Rust Belt states who swung to the GOP in 2016.
The Sanders campaign disputed the notion he would hurt Democrats in swing districts, noting that candidates in states that will be crucial in 2020 had requested his help during 2018 midterms.
Mr. Sanders and Mr. Buttigieg, a 38-year-old newcomer to the national scene, essentially tied in Iowa and finished one-two in New Hampshire. Ms. Warren has faded in the first two contests but is pressing forward, while Ms. Klobuchar, the No. 3 finisher in New Hampshire, is eyeing delegates when her home state of Minnesota votes on March 3.
If Mr. Biden has a strong showing in South Carolina and Nevada, he could regain lost momentum and potentially persuade wavering Democrats to stick with him through subsequent states.
Mr. Bloomberg meanwhile has poured more than $350 million of his fortune into a series of March states, including California, Texas and North Carolina.
Philip Levine, a former mayor of Miami Beach, Fla., who supports Mr. Bloomberg, said in an interview he received “an avalanche” of phone calls and emails Wednesday from donors asking how they could help, and from elected officials, whom he didn’t name, asking his advice on “how to tactfully retract” their endorsements of Mr. Biden and shift their support to Mr. Bloomberg.
Some Democratic donors say privately there will be a lot of pressure for Mr. Biden to get out after South Carolina if he performs poorly there.
“We are going to compete in Super Tuesday states,” said Rep. Cedric Richmond of Louisiana, a Biden campaign co-chairman. “Bloomberg is spending an awful lot of money, but he’s also not had his turn in the barrel. He has not been on the debate stage. He’s untested.”
Larry Rasky, who leads a pro-Biden super PAC called Unite the Country, sought to rally Biden donors in a fundraising memo Sunday by telling them that if they hedge their bets on Mr. Biden because of Mr. Bloomberg, they could be creating a “doomsday scenario.”
“The Sanders-Warren wing of the Party is ready for the Bloomberg fight. Democrats cannot afford a split Convention. Do you really think the Sanders voters wing will support Mike Bloomberg? Do you think all the camps who have busted their butts and played by the rules will happily sign on” to Mr. Bloomberg’s campaign, he wrote.
The party’s attempt to present itself as a steady, competent alternative to Mr. Trump has been marred by the chaotic Iowa caucuses, where more than a week later Mr. Sanders narrowly trails Mr. Buttigieg in state delegates, but Mr. Sanders leads in the popular vote. Both candidates have requested a recanvassing of certain precincts.
Party strategists are watching early-state turnout closely for clues about whether Democrats are energized to vote.
More than 176,000 people participated in the Iowa Democratic caucuses this year, a slight increase from four years ago but well behind the nearly 240,000 who caucused in 2008. New Hampshire was a brighter spot for Democrats: Turnout reached about 297,000 voters in the Democratic primary, compared with about 255,000 in 2016 and nearly 290,000 in 2008.
“Everything is splintered,” said Chris Kofinis, a Democratic strategist and former adviser to West Virginia Sen. Joe Manchin. “And it just shows that voters aren’t falling in love with any of these candidates, and that’s a problem.”
Celinda Lake, a Democratic pollster who has conducted focus groups in early-voting states and general-election battlegrounds, said she has been struck by “the duality of who you like and who you think can beat Trump. And they’re not necessarily the same thing.”
In a sign of Democrats’ interest in finding an alternative to Mr. Biden, some moderate House Democrats have embraced Mr. Bloomberg, including Reps. Mikie Sherrill of New Jersey, Haley Stevens of Michigan and Scott Peters of California. On Wednesday, two African-American members of Congress, Reps. Lucy McBath (D., Ga.) and Gregory Meeks (D., N.Y.) said they were backing Mr. Bloomberg. All are members of the centrist New Democrat Coalition.
Rep. Stephanie Murphy, the chairwoman of the centrist Blue Dog Coalition caucus, said Mr. Sanders wouldn’t be able to win over swing voters, and if he becomes the party’s nominee, he could put the new House majority at risk. “For many moderate districts and Trump-won districts, Bernie Sanders at the top of the ticket would create headwinds for house members running for re-election,” she said.
Former Goldman Sachs Chief Executive Lloyd Blankfein, who supported Hillary Clinton in 2016, said in a tweet Tuesday that “Sanders is just as polarizing as Trump AND he’ll ruin our economy.” Mr. Sanders’s campaign manager tweeted back: “This is what panic from the Wall Street elite looks and sounds like.”
For most of the campaign, Mr. Biden has presented himself as the candidate best able to win states narrowly carried by Mr. Trump, including his boyhood state of Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin.
“He did not have a shot to win Iowa or do well in Iowa,” said Rep. Tim Ryan (D., Ohio), who endorsed Mr. Biden after his own candidacy failed. “His two strongest groups are communities of color and older voters, and both are pretty much excluded from the caucus process.”
Mr. Biden and his wife, Dr. Jill Biden, joined a conference call with the campaign’s top financial donors on Wednesday afternoon, according to three participants, and noted the campaign’s strength in Nevada and South Carolina among Latinos and African-Americans.
Polls indicate that Mr. Buttigieg and Ms. Klobuchar both have struggled to appeal to African-American voters. Mr. Bloomberg apologized for a second time Tuesday amid a fresh round of criticism for his support of stop-and-frisk policing in New York City.
Mr. Sanders has argued that Democrats must nominate someone who can generate enthusiasm and mobilize young people and infrequent voters who were turned off by their choices in the 2016 election. The senator has arguably the best ability to command large crowds, evidenced by more than 7,500 people who showed up for a primary eve rally and concert at the University of New Hampshire.
In the last week, Mr. Sanders has taken the lead in the RealClearPolitics average of national Democratic primary polls, after Mr. Biden had led for months.
While Mr. Biden’s candidacy has foundered, Mr. Bloomberg has courted members of Congress. In January, Mr. Bloomberg flew to Salt Lake City where Rep. Ben McAdams (D., Utah) hosted the former mayor at his home with local Democrats and Republicans. Mr. Bloomberg talked about his hope for a pragmatic government and answered questions on climate change and fiscal responsibility.
Mr. McAdams said he was looking for someone he could support, but also said he was looking for someone who understood a congressional district like his own, which the president carried by 7 percentage points in 2016.
About a week later, he endorsed Mr. Bloomberg.
—Tarini Parti contributed to this article.
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