Trump is a stupid fucking asshole. He is totally unqualified for the job. He is fucking everything up and he doesn't care. Drop dead Trump.
A comment I wrote at the Wall Street Journal:
If the Democrats nominate someone with a brain, for example Michael Bloomberg who is pro-business and for free trade, they would easily get millions of Republican voters who think Trump was a terrible mistake.
Tariff Man Unchained
Trump hits Mexico on trade to solve a U.S. immigration mess.
The biggest economic risk of a Donald Trump Presidency has always been that his trade obsessions would swamp the benefits of tax reform and deregulation. For two years he has kept his worst protectionist impulses mostly in check, but as he seeks a second term we are now seeing Tariff Man unchained. Where he stops nobody knows, which is bad for the economy and perhaps his own re-election.
By the Editorial Board
May 31, 2019 6:53 p.m. ET
Mr. Trump’s trade talks with China have broken down and both countries are escalating their rhetoric. The U.S. is blocking Huawei from buying U.S. products, while China is threatening to block the export of rare-earth minerals that are crucial to many U.S. industries. A trade deal that looked imminent weeks ago now looks months away, if it happens at all. Mr. Trump’s threat of 25% tariffs on foreign autos also hangs over Europe and Japan.
Then out of the blue late Thursday Mr. Trump announced escalating tariffs up to 25% on U.S. imports from Mexico for alleged sins on immigration. The first 5% levy would hit June 10, with 5% increments through Oct. 1. “Mexico must step up and help solve this problem,” Mr. Trump declared in a statement charged with political rhetoric. “For years, Mexico has not treated us fairly—but we are now asserting our rights as a sovereign Nation.”
The first problem here is that Mr. Trump is blaming Mexico for a mess it can’t solve. The real cause of the recent border chaos is the lure of U.S. asylum policy. Migrants from Central America know that if they cross the border illegally with children they can’t be detained for more than 20 days. They are then released into the U.S. where they can work for years until their asylum hearing date, and most never show up.
Mr. Trump is right that Democrats refuse to help, but then why change the subject to Mexico? Our southern neighbor is already helping by agreeing to hold asylum seekers inside Mexico. Perhaps it could better control its border with Guatemala, but the caravans north are often led by gangs that know how to bribe or avoid police. Blaming Mexico is a distraction that lets Democrats off the hook.
The Mexico tariffs also heighten economic uncertainty because they aren’t even about trade. The risk is that Mr. Trump has come to view tariffs as a blunt-force tool to achieve any diplomatic goal. They are Mr. Trump’s magic elixir that will solve any political ailment. Like Barack Obama’s willy-nilly regulation, tariffs can thus pop up at any time for any reason. No supply chain is safe from Tariff Man.
There’s also the matter of this President’s credibility around the world. Only months ago Mr. Trump signed a new trade pact with Mexico and Canada to replace Nafta. The deal reassured financial markets. But now he whacks Mexico with unilateral tariffs that violate Nafta and World Trade Organization (WTO) rules. Other national leaders can be forgiven for concluding that any trade deal with Mr. Trump is subject to revision on his personal political whim.
The tariffs could also complicate passage of the new U.S.-Mexico-Canada deal in Congress. Mr. Trump is invoking a 1977 statute—the International Emergency Economic Powers Act—to impose the tariffs after declaring an emergency. The Congressional Research Service says the law has never been invoked for tariffs. “This is a misuse of presidential tariff authority and counter to congressional intent,” Senate Finance Chairman Chuck Grassley said Friday.
If the tariffs are imposed, the economic damage could be considerable. Mexico exported $371 billion to the U.S. in 2018, and it is now our largest trading partner. A 25% tariff would impose costs of some $90 billion a year. Mexico may suffer the most, which could perversely drive more illegal migrants to the U.S., but America would also be a loser.
Mr. Trump, in his Fortress America mind, says businesses could merely move to the U.S. to avoid the tariffs. But that would impose enormous transition costs and take years to execute. Many exporters would move out of North America. Meantime, Texas imported $107 billion in goods from Mexico in 2018, and a 5% tariff would impose a $5.4 billion tax. A 25% tariff would mean $27 billion in border taxes.
All of this arrives at a moment when global trade has been growing more slowly amid rising trade tension. The WTO said in April it expects global trade volume to grow by a mere 2.6% this year, and trade growth typically exceeds growth in GDP. That estimate assumed an easing of trade anxiety, not a two-front U.S. trade brawl with China and Mexico.
The best scenario is that this tariff threat is Mr. Trump’s familiar bluster in which he threatens chaos to get attention and then backs down. The Mexican reaction has been conciliatory, a good sign. Stock markets fell only about 1.4%, which suggests investors also think Mr. Trump will walk back from the ledge.
But then Tariff Man is impulsive and often his own worst enemy. Equities have fallen for six straight weeks and corporate profits are down. The job market is strong, but that isn’t guaranteed if investment starts to lag. Senate Republicans need to get off their sedan chairs and send this President a message on trade, or they may be in the minority in 2021.
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