Why talks with North Korea won’t succeed
While everyone seems to be heartened by the sudden announcement that Donald Trump will meet Kim Jong-un to negotiate for the DPRK’s suspension of either nuclear testing or building weapons, I am not optimistic. (I hope I’m wrong, but I doubt it.) There are three reasons.
1.) Trump will be meeting with Kim Jon-un, and Trump is an idiot—far less savvy than the North Korean leader. The U.S., as before, will be played.
2.) Kim Jong-un, and his predecessors, have no intention of abandoning their nuclear program, which is their one assurance against attack by the West.
3.) In the last decade and a half, North Korea has agreed to freeze its nuclear program and/or halt missile tests three times. It’s violated all three agreements. Why should we trust them now, especially in view of the spate of missile tests and bigger weapons?
Yes, I know it’s better to seem optimistic than pessimistic, for if talks don’t work, the alternatives are either that the status quo will continue (my own view) or unthinkable war will happen. But my prediction is that, five years from now, North Korea will have missiles capable of hitting everywhere in the U.S., they won’t use them, and we’ll just have another nuclear power on the planet.
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